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One of the hard things about thinking about the future is posing questions, speculating about what will be. This week we investigate and contemplate what shifts are taking place. Some of the questions we need to contemplate are:
One of the hard things about thinking about the future is posing questions, speculating about what will be. This week we investigate and contemplate what shifts are taking place. Some of the questions we need to contemplate are:2
- What will the next big thing be?
- Can we predict it?
- Are there any clues?
- Can we get a snapshot of possibilities?
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During the video, 64 babies were born in the US, 244 in India, 351 in China, but only 6 babies were born in Australia. If you are 1 in a million, there’s 1300 like you in China, 1100 in India, but only 21 like you in Australia. Half of what you learnt in this course and everything in the video is already out of date. But the processes of learning, the ways of viewing problems, the shifts in perception, will stay with you.
During the video, 64 babies were born in the US, 244 in India, 351 in China, but only 6 babies were born in Australia. If you are 1 in a million, there’s 1300 like you in China, 1100 in India, but only 21 like you in Australia. Half of what you learnt in this course and everything in the video is already out of date. But the processes of learning, the ways of viewing problems, the shifts in perception, will stay with you.5
Some of the shifts we’ve seen in the last decade or two, include the way we consume media. In the 1990’s, you sat and watched, media was consumed, now in the 2000’s, you can contribute to media. We see more media being created, remixed, shifted.
Some of the shifts we’ve seen in the last decade or two, include the way we consume media. In the 1990’s, you sat and watched, media was consumed, now in the 2000’s, you can contribute to media. We see more media being created, remixed, shifted.6
So what will TV be like in the future? Will it be ad-free, but ads can be content too. (This video is also an ad. What is it advertising?) Will we be watching more video online? Will we be sharing and remixing more? Some of the things that we need to reconsider are demonstrated in this video.
So what will TV be like in the future? Will it be ad-free, but ads can be content too. (This video is also an ad. What is it advertising?) Will we be watching more video online? Will we be sharing and remixing more? Some of the things that we need to reconsider are demonstrated in this video.10
Each of these terms signal a shift in the ways that we view things. The phrase, web 2.0, originated in a discussion at a conference. It was defined in contrast to what we now think of as web 1.0. Many of the activities on the web 2.o side were more interactive than previously. These shifts parallel the shifts in technologies, which are becoming handheld, adaptable and integrated. The systems we use are often free. We have multiple modes of connection – between systems and between people. Like technologies, these applications and connections are becoming more ubiquitous.
Each of these terms signal a shift in the ways that we view things. The phrase, web 2.0, originated in a discussion at a conference. It was defined in contrast to what we now think of as web 1.0. Many of the activities on the web 2.o side were more interactive than previously. These shifts parallel the shifts in technologies, which are becoming handheld, adaptable and integrated. The systems we use are often free. We have multiple modes of connection – between systems and between people. Like technologies, these applications and connections are becoming more ubiquitous.12
One of the most important trends includes the emerging long tail markets. The distribution and marketing processes of many businesses are changing (or at least, need to change) in order to become more relevant to today’s markets. Getting to the people who are you customers and/or clients is a central part of business, because your reputation soars or falls based on how people perceive your brand. It seems that ideas, whether your own or someone else’s have more power than ever before. If you are not keeping track, your relevance in the marketplace will diminish.
One of the most important trends includes the emerging long tail markets. The distribution and marketing processes of many businesses are changing (or at least, need to change) in order to become more relevant to today’s markets. Getting to the people who are you customers and/or clients is a central part of business, because your reputation soars or falls based on how people perceive your brand. It seems that ideas, whether your own or someone else’s have more power than ever before. If you are not keeping track, your relevance in the marketplace will diminish.15
Kodak was late to the mass produced digital camera revolution although inspired it. It developed the first prototype in 1975. But it did not enter the digital camera market until 2001. For the most part of this time, Kodak believed the digital ‘revolution’ was a passing fad. In some ways, Kodak failed to engaged with their customers. However, since entering the digital camera market, Kodak realised that it must connect with customers to ensure their continued relevance in the market. Some of their recent innovations include
Kodak was late to the mass produced digital camera revolution although inspired it. It developed the first prototype in 1975. But it did not enter the digital camera market until 2001. For the most part of this time, Kodak believed the digital ‘revolution’ was a passing fad. In some ways, Kodak failed to engaged with their customers. However, since entering the digital camera market, Kodak realised that it must connect with customers to ensure their continued relevance in the market. Some of their recent innovations include16
- A photography blog started in September, 2006
- A product blog in January, 2007
- A business blog in May 2008
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Kodak’s philosophy has recognised the shift that has occurred in the way that people use technology, particularly for sharing their lives:
Kodak’s philosophy has recognised the shift that has occurred in the way that people use technology, particularly for sharing their lives:20
Internet communities are not just for fun anymore, they’re a place to discuss the meaningful aspects of our lives, business and its future.
21
Much of this is documented on their 1000 words blog which will be useful as a case study of how business can adapt, both now and in the future.
Much of this is documented on their 1000 words blog which will be useful as a case study of how business can adapt, both now and in the future.23
In 2006, in a speech entitled ‘The Dawn of A New Age of Discovery: Media 2006‘ Rupert Murdoch said:
In 2006, in a speech entitled ‘The Dawn of A New Age of Discovery: Media 2006‘ Rupert Murdoch said:24
That old square television box in the corner of the room may soon be dead but the television industry is seizing the opportunities thrown up by the technology revolution.
PVRs – personal video recorders – streaming live TV onto mobile phones – beaming programmes onto computers via IPTV – internet broadcasts – this wave of innovation gives the consumer huge choice at relatively low cost.
So, media becomes like fast food – people will consume it on the go, watching news, sport and film clips as they travel to and from work on mobiles or handheld wireless devices like Sony’s PSP, or others already in test by our Satellite companies
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This demonstrates the vision that some organisations and their leaders have when it comes to the shifts wrought by new technologies. However, recently, after significant losses in News Corporation’s revenues. He now says:
This demonstrates the vision that some organisations and their leaders have when it comes to the shifts wrought by new technologies. However, recently, after significant losses in News Corporation’s revenues. He now says:26
Quality journalism is not cheap. The digital revolution has opened many new and inexpensive distribution channels but it has not made content free. We intend to charge for all our news websites.
Quality journalism is not cheap. The digital revolution has opened many new and inexpensive distribution channels but it has not made content free. We intend to charge for all our news websites.27
In some ways, this latter view is a step backwards. Rather than adjust the business model for news, which most people can get free somewhere on the web, Murdoch seems to be choosing to make it harder to access News Corporation’s news, thereby rendering it irrelevant and of little value to link hungry readers. Bloggers and others (including Google) will be unable to send traffic to a news site that is behind a pay wall.
In some ways, this latter view is a step backwards. Rather than adjust the business model for news, which most people can get free somewhere on the web, Murdoch seems to be choosing to make it harder to access News Corporation’s news, thereby rendering it irrelevant and of little value to link hungry readers. Bloggers and others (including Google) will be unable to send traffic to a news site that is behind a pay wall.29
Music is shifting with the first ever digital only hit by Rihanna. Other bands are experimenting with online business models. Radiohead have released some albums for digital download. Nine Inch Nails have also experimented with distribution models. But the question remains: Are the mainstream music distributors noticing? Apple has changed its pricing structures, music download sites have come and gone, but whatever models may come and go, one thing is sure, we have not seen the stablisation of the music industry yet.
Music is shifting with the first ever digital only hit by Rihanna. Other bands are experimenting with online business models. Radiohead have released some albums for digital download. Nine Inch Nails have also experimented with distribution models. But the question remains: Are the mainstream music distributors noticing? Apple has changed its pricing structures, music download sites have come and gone, but whatever models may come and go, one thing is sure, we have not seen the stablisation of the music industry yet.31
We now live in a time when it is easy to get whatever knowledge we want. Some say this is too much, that our knowledge become fragmented and disjointed. Often we feel we know a lot, but only within certain limits, but what could be even worse is knowing a little about a lot. Superficial approaches to knowledge may be the biggest problem to strategic and systems thinking processes. And this is perhaps the biggest driver to the sharing and collaborative processes that many people engage in to learn.
We now live in a time when it is easy to get whatever knowledge we want. Some say this is too much, that our knowledge become fragmented and disjointed. Often we feel we know a lot, but only within certain limits, but what could be even worse is knowing a little about a lot. Superficial approaches to knowledge may be the biggest problem to strategic and systems thinking processes. And this is perhaps the biggest driver to the sharing and collaborative processes that many people engage in to learn.33
Our communication processes are becoming more community driven. We are constantly attempting to define ways to connect and share information across multiple sites with many people. Sites such as Twitter and Facebook are attempts to answer some of the problems. Applications like wikis, blogs and now Gooogle’s Wave are also attempts to consolidate and communicate. We are more alone and yet more together than ever before.
Our communication processes are becoming more community driven. We are constantly attempting to define ways to connect and share information across multiple sites with many people. Sites such as Twitter and Facebook are attempts to answer some of the problems. Applications like wikis, blogs and now Gooogle’s Wave are also attempts to consolidate and communicate. We are more alone and yet more together than ever before.37
And I include you as teachers leading other people to greater understandings of technology. As business professionals, it becomes your responsibility to ensure the success of whatever endeavour you are undertaking.
And I include you as teachers leading other people to greater understandings of technology. As business professionals, it becomes your responsibility to ensure the success of whatever endeavour you are undertaking.39
Some of the changes we are now dealing with have been gradual, seemingly slow processes that may set the scene for each new shift. Technology is becoming our lives.
Some of the changes we are now dealing with have been gradual, seemingly slow processes that may set the scene for each new shift. Technology is becoming our lives.