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This week’s lecture started with a classic problem of a truck stuck under a bridge. Often it takes a while to get to the answer stepping through on variety of problem solving processes, but it may be that the problem is getting old, or you are getting smarter.
This week’s lecture started with a classic problem of a truck stuck under a bridge. Often it takes a while to get to the answer stepping through on variety of problem solving processes, but it may be that the problem is getting old, or you are getting smarter.2
The ‘waterfall’ process is probably the simplest to discuss problems solving as it provides a simple linear set of steps.
Each step in the process allows you to focus on a specific task to work towards a solution. There are other methods of problem solving, that depends on the type of problem.
The ‘waterfall’ process is probably the simplest to discuss problems solving as it provides a simple linear set of steps.Each step in the process allows you to focus on a specific task to work towards a solution. There are other methods of problem solving, that depends on the type of problem.
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Puzzles are well-defined and have a fixed solution. Games such as Sudoku and FreeCell are examples of puzzles.
Puzzles are well-defined and have a fixed solution. Games such as Sudoku and FreeCell are examples of puzzles.6
Problems have various levels of definition but different exclusive solutions are possible. Examples of a problem is choosing a home computer or designing a garden. Different solutions will be possible and often a range of solutions are weighed up before one is selected.
Problems have various levels of definition but different exclusive solutions are possible. Examples of a problem is choosing a home computer or designing a garden. Different solutions will be possible and often a range of solutions are weighed up before one is selected.7
Messes, on the other hand, are complex issues that are not well defined or are without agreed problem definition. Complex issues such as where to locate dams or highway bypasses, or whether to filter the Internet are messes. Solutions to messes must address the whole mess: ignoring relationships to other parts of the mess will lead to failure. In essence, messes are ‘problems with no shape’.
Messes, on the other hand, are complex issues that are not well defined or are without agreed problem definition. Complex issues such as where to locate dams or highway bypasses, or whether to filter the Internet are messes. Solutions to messes must address the whole mess: ignoring relationships to other parts of the mess will lead to failure. In essence, messes are ‘problems with no shape’.9
Structured problems have straightforward solutions and you can take a set of steps to get to the solution.
Structured problems have straightforward solutions and you can take a set of steps to get to the solution.10
Semi-Structured are not so straightforward, part of the problem is logical but part of it isn’t. Several things will work. It is possible to take several courses of action, all leading to potentially improved outcomes.
Semi-Structured are not so straightforward, part of the problem is logical but part of it isn’t. Several things will work. It is possible to take several courses of action, all leading to potentially improved outcomes.11
Un-Structured problems make no sense! These are what we call “messes” or “wicked (evil) problems”. Often there is no known course of action as the problem may not have occurred before, and similar problems are not close enough to follow the same solution (but watch people try and end up with a bigger mess).
Un-Structured problems make no sense! These are what we call “messes” or “wicked (evil) problems”. Often there is no known course of action as the problem may not have occurred before, and similar problems are not close enough to follow the same solution (but watch people try and end up with a bigger mess).12
The most fundamental rule for handling wicked problems is that they must not be treated like tame problems. To quote Rittel and Webber (1973): “The classical systems approach … is based on the assumption that a … project can be organized into distinct phases: ‘understand the problems’, ‘gather information,’ ‘synthesize information…,’ ‘work out solutions’ and the like. For wicked problems, however, this type of scheme does not work. One cannot understand the problem without knowing about its context; one cannot meaningfully search for information without the orientation of a solution concept, one cannot first understand, then solve.”[1]
The most fundamental rule for handling wicked problems is that they must not be treated like tame problems. To quote Rittel and Webber (1973): “The classical systems approach … is based on the assumption that a … project can be organized into distinct phases: ‘understand the problems’, ‘gather information,’ ‘synthesize information…,’ ‘work out solutions’ and the like. For wicked problems, however, this type of scheme does not work. One cannot understand the problem without knowing about its context; one cannot meaningfully search for information without the orientation of a solution concept, one cannot first understand, then solve.”[1]15
Resolution is trying to see both sides of the issue and take the classic ‘step through sequence’ described above to reach a ‘compromise’ or to accommodate world views. Other words that apply to this are negotiation and mediation.
Resolution is trying to see both sides of the issue and take the classic ‘step through sequence’ described above to reach a ‘compromise’ or to accommodate world views. Other words that apply to this are negotiation and mediation.16
Dissolution occurs when the problem is approached to ensure that it never happens again. “How can we design the system so this problem can’t occur (again)?”
Dissolution occurs when the problem is approached to ensure that it never happens again. “How can we design the system so this problem can’t occur (again)?”17
This comes from the work of Russell Ackoff (1978) (The art of problem solving, in particular). In problem resolution, we are “solving”, trying to find the best answer to the present crisis by coming up with a solution that works given current rules and regulations. In this approach, we talk like engineers and say, “Let’s solve it.” Idealised redesign principles (i.e what solution would we use if we could use ‘any’ solution) come into play when we used creative lateral thinking to say, “let’s redesign the system in such a way that this problem cannot occur ever again.” Absolution, however, is where nothing happens and in some circumstances this may appear as the only answer.
This comes from the work of Russell Ackoff (1978) (The art of problem solving, in particular). In problem resolution, we are “solving”, trying to find the best answer to the present crisis by coming up with a solution that works given current rules and regulations. In this approach, we talk like engineers and say, “Let’s solve it.” Idealised redesign principles (i.e what solution would we use if we could use ‘any’ solution) come into play when we used creative lateral thinking to say, “let’s redesign the system in such a way that this problem cannot occur ever again.” Absolution, however, is where nothing happens and in some circumstances this may appear as the only answer.19
Wiki Data: The activity from the tutorial of organising the wiki data is an example of a messy problem. There are a number of ways to clean it up using different tools. We demonstrated one, but perhaps you can think of more.
Wiki Data: The activity from the tutorial of organising the wiki data is an example of a messy problem. There are a number of ways to clean it up using different tools. We demonstrated one, but perhaps you can think of more.20
Find a resource about Internet use at work: The requirement for you to find an academic reference concerning the main topic is an example of an unstructured problem. We can work through this using a process such as discussed in the text book (p209).
Find a resource about Internet use at work: The requirement for you to find an academic reference concerning the main topic is an example of an unstructured problem. We can work through this using a process such as discussed in the text book (p209).24
You may have noticed, when out shopping, the almost ‘infinite’ choice we are presented with. This image from Barry Schwartz’s video about the Paradox of Choice highlights this.
You may have noticed, when out shopping, the almost ‘infinite’ choice we are presented with. This image from Barry Schwartz’s video about the Paradox of Choice highlights this.
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Seriously, who needs 285 varieties of cookies (or biscuits as we prefer to call them in Australia). Each time we venture forth, we are presented with numerous choices about where to go, what to do, with whom to talk. Richard Feynman, the physicist, had his own solution to the problem of choice:
Seriously, who needs 285 varieties of cookies (or biscuits as we prefer to call them in Australia). Each time we venture forth, we are presented with numerous choices about where to go, what to do, with whom to talk. Richard Feynman, the physicist, had his own solution to the problem of choice:27
When you’re young, you have all these things to worry about — should you go there, what about your mother. And you worry, and try to decide, but then something else comes up. It’s much easier to just plain decide. Never mind — nothing is going to change your mind. I did that once when I was a student at MIT. I got sick and tired of having to decide what kind of dessert I was going to have at the restaurant, so I decided it would always be chocolate ice cream, and never worried about it again — I had the solution to that problem.
When you’re young, you have all these things to worry about — should you go there, what about your mother. And you worry, and try to decide, but then something else comes up. It’s much easier to just plain decide. Never mind — nothing is going to change your mind. I did that once when I was a student at MIT. I got sick and tired of having to decide what kind of dessert I was going to have at the restaurant, so I decided it would always be chocolate ice cream, and never worried about it again — I had the solution to that problem.30
Risk – Risk is a part of our everyday experience. Every choice we are faced with involves understanding risk. Risk is really nothing more than the likelihood of an outcome based on what we expect and this makes it tricky to define. At the outset we have to accept that risk is involved in all decisions because we make our decisions under the shadow of ambiguity. We don’t have access to all the facts or complete information because we will not truly know if a choice will work or not until we take some action. The more complex and tougher the choice, the more ambiguous the outcomes, then the decision maker needs more perspectives, more ideas and experience because the risk of making a wrong decision is higher.
Risk – Risk is a part of our everyday experience. Every choice we are faced with involves understanding risk. Risk is really nothing more than the likelihood of an outcome based on what we expect and this makes it tricky to define. At the outset we have to accept that risk is involved in all decisions because we make our decisions under the shadow of ambiguity. We don’t have access to all the facts or complete information because we will not truly know if a choice will work or not until we take some action. The more complex and tougher the choice, the more ambiguous the outcomes, then the decision maker needs more perspectives, more ideas and experience because the risk of making a wrong decision is higher.31
Example: When deciding to choose what major to study you are faced with the risk that your choice may be wrong for you. Are you planning to be an accountant? What’s the risk that you will not like it when you finish? Now that you are aware of the risk what choice could you make to reduce or eliminate that risk? Pick another major, do some work experience as an accountant? Either way you are unlikely to be able to understand the full implications of that risk until you make the decision.
Example: When deciding to choose what major to study you are faced with the risk that your choice may be wrong for you. Are you planning to be an accountant? What’s the risk that you will not like it when you finish? Now that you are aware of the risk what choice could you make to reduce or eliminate that risk? Pick another major, do some work experience as an accountant? Either way you are unlikely to be able to understand the full implications of that risk until you make the decision.32
Uncertainty – Uncertainty is closely related to risk. When an outcome of a particular action is uncertain, it can feel like a tremendous risk. There are many ways we try to manage risk, for instance, studying hard before an exam so you reduce your risk of failure.
Uncertainty – Uncertainty is closely related to risk. When an outcome of a particular action is uncertain, it can feel like a tremendous risk. There are many ways we try to manage risk, for instance, studying hard before an exam so you reduce your risk of failure.33
Intuition – When you use your intuition to make a decision, it can seem slightly irrational. That’s because you are basing your judgments more on emotions than on the facts. While this may appear to be a bad thing based on our rationalist society, there are times when intuition and emotion become very important in your decisions. For instance, would you move to a cold climate for a job if you absolutely hate the cold?
Intuition – When you use your intuition to make a decision, it can seem slightly irrational. That’s because you are basing your judgments more on emotions than on the facts. While this may appear to be a bad thing based on our rationalist society, there are times when intuition and emotion become very important in your decisions. For instance, would you move to a cold climate for a job if you absolutely hate the cold?34
Cognitive biases – there are many cognitive biases in decision making. We’ve already mentioned some, but we tend to think of these in specific ways. A bias generally means that you tend toward a particular perspective based on previous experience. For instance, many people say they hate computers because their first experience lead to complete confusion. Sometimes our biases get in the way of our learning.
Cognitive biases – there are many cognitive biases in decision making. We’ve already mentioned some, but we tend to think of these in specific ways. A bias generally means that you tend toward a particular perspective based on previous experience. For instance, many people say they hate computers because their first experience lead to complete confusion. Sometimes our biases get in the way of our learning.35
Heuristics, a guideline or ‘rule of thumb’ for decision making, allow us to make quick decisions. They can help us, but they can also hinder us. If a certain action has always worked previously, why would it not work this time? Often it does, but there will be times when it doesn’t. We need caution in decision making using heuristics because life is complex. There is no real guarantee that the steps used in the decision making process will work in the same manner as they have previously.
Heuristics, a guideline or ‘rule of thumb’ for decision making, allow us to make quick decisions. They can help us, but they can also hinder us. If a certain action has always worked previously, why would it not work this time? Often it does, but there will be times when it doesn’t. We need caution in decision making using heuristics because life is complex. There is no real guarantee that the steps used in the decision making process will work in the same manner as they have previously.36
Specifically, the availability heuristic leads us to make decision on things that come easily to mind. The text book gives the case of the death rates from various causes. Our beliefs sometimes result from overexposure, for instance hearing about air crashes more often than car crashes. We used the statistics from the Australian Bureau of Statistics to demonstrate this. The question, then, is:
Specifically, the availability heuristic leads us to make decision on things that come easily to mind. The text book gives the case of the death rates from various causes. Our beliefs sometimes result from overexposure, for instance hearing about air crashes more often than car crashes. We used the statistics from the Australian Bureau of Statistics to demonstrate this. The question, then, is:39
One of the most common strategies for dealing with risk and uncertainty is denial – the belief that it won’t happen to you. This does not make for good decisions, so always think about the consquences.
One of the most common strategies for dealing with risk and uncertainty is denial – the belief that it won’t happen to you. This does not make for good decisions, so always think about the consquences.40
Decisions can be programmable or not programmable, depending on the level of structure of the problem (see Week 4). The more structured the problem, the more it lends itself to being programmable, with reasonably predictable outcomes. The more information you have, generally, the more structured the problem and the more programmable the solution (and consequently the decision) will be.
Decisions can be programmable or not programmable, depending on the level of structure of the problem (see Week 4). The more structured the problem, the more it lends itself to being programmable, with reasonably predictable outcomes. The more information you have, generally, the more structured the problem and the more programmable the solution (and consequently the decision) will be.41
Individual decision making – Lifehacker has a great post on how to make decisions. They outline four different processes you can use. Think about the strategies you use for making decisions.
Individual decision making – Lifehacker has a great post on how to make decisions. They outline four different processes you can use. Think about the strategies you use for making decisions.42
Group decision making, particularly in the workplace, is often supported by computer based systems called Decision Support systems. These allow gathering and analysis of information to allow possible solutions to be evaluated. Just like the processes outlined in the Lifehacker post, group decisions usually allow the weighing of outcomes against some prespecified criteria.
Group decision making, particularly in the workplace, is often supported by computer based systems called Decision Support systems. These allow gathering and analysis of information to allow possible solutions to be evaluated. Just like the processes outlined in the Lifehacker post, group decisions usually allow the weighing of outcomes against some prespecified criteria.43
Post-hoc rationalisations are decisions you didn’t really think about. These are decisions that you rationalise away after you made the decision. For instance, who needs to attend a lecture on computers when you did it at school?
Post-hoc rationalisations are decisions you didn’t really think about. These are decisions that you rationalise away after you made the decision. For instance, who needs to attend a lecture on computers when you did it at school?45
This course presents particular difficulties for assessment due to the wide range of disciplines that you come from. It raises particular questions:
This course presents particular difficulties for assessment due to the wide range of disciplines that you come from. It raises particular questions:46
- How do we assess work in a course with multiple disciplinary ideas?
- How do we validly measure outcomes?
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One solution is to use a well defined taxonomy of expected outcomes, with measurable criteria such as the SOLO Taxonomy (Structure of Observed Learning Outcomes). This forms the heuristic for the basis of solving the problem. What do you think?
One solution is to use a well defined taxonomy of expected outcomes, with measurable criteria such as the SOLO Taxonomy (Structure of Observed Learning Outcomes). This forms the heuristic for the basis of solving the problem. What do you think?